MDL Toolkit

Bellwether Trials

Bellwether trials are “test cases” that are tried as part of an MDL. Bellwether trials can provide meaningful “information, experience, and data to allow the parties to make an intelligent and informed decision” about the future course of the litigation. Eldon E. Fallon, Bellwether Trials, 89 UMKC L. Rev. 951, 952 (2021). As the Manual for Complex Litigation puts it, bellwether trials “enable the parties and the court to determine the nature and strength of the claims, whether they can be fairly developed and litigated on a group basis, and what range of values the cases may have if resolution is attempted on a group basis.” Fed. Jud. Ctr., Manual for Complex Litigation § 22.315 (4th ed. 2004) [hereinafter MCL]; see also Bolch Jud. Inst., Duke L. Sch., Guidelines and Best Practices for Large and Mass-Tort MDLs 18 (2d ed. 2018) [hereinafter Bolch Guidelines]. Frequently, bellwether trials help the parties better assess the litigation’s strengths and weaknesses, which, in turn, can help the parties estimate the value of the litigation and promote settlement.

Yet, bellwether trials are only helpful to the extent they are truly representative, and sometimes, they aren’t. Indeed, each side has strong incentives to maneuver the timing and selection processes for bellwether trials so the cases with the strongest facts for their side get tried first, even if such cases are not representative.  When tried exclusively in the transferee court, bellwether trials also feature a narrow and possibly unrepresentative jury pool. Additionally, the MDL judge may impose procedural requirements on the trial itself (such as trial time limits) that may skew verdicts. Cf. Nora Freeman Engstrom, The Trouble with Trial Time Limits, 106 Geo. L. Rev. 933 (2018) (discussing consequences of trial time limits). And even if bellwether trial verdicts are representative, extrapolating the results of bellwether trials to
other cases often requires tricky inferences and statistical analyses to distribute compensation among plaintiffs. Alexandra D. Lahav, Bellwether Trials, 76 Geo. Wash. L. Rev. 576, 579 (2008). Such inferences can raise autonomy and due process-based concerns given the lack of individualized consideration.

The sections below outline some basic information about bellwether trials, then discuss how MDL judges have decided whether to conduct bellwether trials, what cases to select, resultant case management questions, and adjacent issues. For more on bellwether trials, see Bolch Guidelines, supra at 17–28; MCL, supra at 360; Fallon, supra; Fed. Jud. Ctr., Bellwether Trials in MDL Proceedings 45 (2023) [hereinafter FJC];  Eldon E. Fallon, Jeremy T. Grabill & Robert Pitard Wynne, Bellwether Trials in Multidistrict Litig., 82 Tulane L. Rev. 2322 (2008).

Bellwether Trial Basics

Selecting Cases for Bellwether Pools & Trial

Managing Bellwether Trials